The best decision-makers influence only 30% of the predicted outcome.
So what happens with the other 70%?
“He’s a rockstar,” says the HR manager.
Up to this point, I was less than impressed with the outcome of our talent selection process.
“What makes you say that?” I replied without lifting my eyes from the document I was reading.
“Well, their values align with ours. My network highly recommends them, and I have worked with them in the past,” she confidently replies.
“Sounds promising,” I said while I shuffled my work off to the side.
This is a common occurrence in the workplace. Too often, hiring decisions are made based on some limited set of criteria that are role focused but lack the flexibility to adapt to the circumstances and environment, or in other words, “the situation.”
The situation is overwhelmingly responsible for success in any given setting and is far too often set aside and replaced with our human desire to be acknowledged in the outcome.
Like an all-star baseball player, a .300 batting average is top tier. This is comparable to all-star decision-makers, as they can only influence or predict a successful outcome roughly 30% of the time.
So where does the other 70% come from?
THE SITUATION
The situation is overwhelmingly responsible for success in any given setting and is far too often set aside and replaced with our human desire to be acknowledged in the outcome.
At least when the outcome is positive!
For example, workplaces tend to credit positive results with the team and leader's actions but are quick to point out circumstances beyond their control when results are poor.
How can this be?
Short answer….it can’t.
There is a long list of why this happens, which will be explored more deeply in my book Eleven Rules for S.E.X at Work. For now, I want to leave you with a nudge to emphasize “the situation” much more than your decision-making ability the next time you add someone new to the team.
Instead of wasting time with candidate rubrics, panel interviews, and long-winded job descriptions that are ridiculous at best, spend your time in the environment and understanding the dynamics of “the situation” you intend to put the person in.
And, of course, prepare yourself only to be correct 30% of the time!
Happy decision-making!
Ryan